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Archive for October, 2009

Oct
26

Did You Miss The Gold Train?

Posted by: PC | Comments (27)

cartoon hedge fund Did You Miss The Gold Train?

By Peter Costa

As gold continues to break record highs is it to late to invest in the precious metal? This is an enormous question on many investors minds especially the average household investor who is looking to preserve their assets from further devaluation of the dollar. Based on plentiful research, I have come to the conclusion that gold has just started to take off and this could possibly be one of the best times to buy gold while it is still sitting at just over $1000.00 an ounce.

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What made me come to this abrupt conclusion? Copious economic factors and the current prospects that are buying the yellow metal. If you ever need an indication of where things are heading in an economy look to see what hedge fund managers are doing. In the past many hedge fund managers have made accurate decisions based on their idea of where things are heading and have come out on top because of it. For instance renowned hedge fund manager David Einhorn warned about Lehman Brothers failing and made billions from the collapse. John Paulson of Paulson & Co. predicted that subprime mortgages would falter and made a bet against it which put billions in his pocket. If hedge fund managers have been right in the past about economic turn out then I wonder what decisions and bets they are making in the current market place. In a recent survey carried out in the United States it found that 20 out of 22 hedge fund managers interviewed were buying gold to protect their personal wealth against excessive inflation. With hedge fund managers pumping billions into the gold market it is safe to say that you are not too late and that there could not be a better time to buy gold .

Who are the major hedge fund managers driving up the price of gold ? Let’s start out with renowned investor John Paulson of Paulson & Co. whose hedge fund oversees just over $29 billion. Currently he has over 50% of his fund in gold or gold related investments and just plunked down $1.3 billion for an 11% stake in AngloGold. David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital has been a frequent purchaser of the GLD fund and in a recent decision sold his entire 4.2 million shares which amounted to 420,000 ounces of gold in favor of holding physical gold. Michael Avery, who helps manage the $22 billion Asset Strategy funds of firm Waddell & Reed says his fund currently holds 15% of their money in gold bullion, which amounts to roughly $3.3 billion. Marc Stern, who helps oversee $55 billion as chief investment officer at Bessemer Trust, has about 1% of those assets, or $550 million, in gold as part of a hedge against future inflation, along with other anti-inflation investments. Eric Mindich who became the youngest partner of Goldman Sachs is running a hedge fund with over 6 billion dollars and has been purchasing large quantities of gold.

“In 5,000 years of human history, gold has been the currency of choice, the store of value, when humans have called into question their governments’ efforts to solve problems by running printing presses and injecting money into the economy”, says Michael Avery of Waddel & Reed. David Einhorn last week told a New York investment conference that, before the financial crisis began in earnest last year, he shared the skeptics’ view of gold as a metal of little intrinsic value outside dentistry, jewelry and some specialized electronics uses. “The recent crisis has changed my view,” he said.”My instinct is to want to short the dollar,” Mr. Einhorn said. “But then I look at the other major currencies. The euro, the yen and the British pound might be worse. So, I conclude that picking one of these currencies is like choosing my favorite dental procedure. And I decide holding gold is better than holding cash.” Ronald Fricke of Regal Assets stated last week that things are only going to grow worse in the U.S. economy and while it is still early individuals need to add gold to their portfolio so they can start protecting what wealth they have before inflation renders it useless.

David Einhorn said October.19th that his hedge fund is betting on the possibility of a major currency collapse and a surge in interest rates, citing ballooning government deficits in some of the world’s most developed countries. This is very alarming and speaks to the current state of the global economy. If renowned hedge fund manager David Einhorn is warning of a major currency collapse we should heed his warning and start protecting our wealth before it is to late. With so many hedge fund managers buying into the gold market I think it is safe to say that there is still time. The only question we should have on our minds is how much time do we have left. If you have not placed at least a percentage of gold into your portfolio you owe it to yourself to take the appropriate steps. Like all the investors who have taken action and purchased gold you will not be disappointed. The only thing you may be disappointed with is the fact that you did not put enough of your wealth in gold.

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Oct
19

3 Reasons Why Gold Could Hit $1300

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inflationcartoon 3 Reasons Why Gold Could Hit $1300

By Peter Costa

Gold has had an amazing year for 2009 growing as much as 20% to this date. With gold holding on strong at the $1050.00 an ounce level let’s take a look at the 3 major factors driving up the price of gold and why experts are expecting gold to hit $1300.00 an ounce by the end of the year.

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1. INFLATION: When you expand the money supply it is just as guarantee as the law of gravity that inflation will follow. Since September 2008 the money supply in the U.S. has expanded by more than $3 trillion. This money has been used for bailouts, stimulus packages and anything else the economy has demanded. We have never embellished the money supply in such an immeasurable level since the inception of the United States. To make things worse the Federal Reserve is borrowing more money than any time in the nation’s history more than the period of 1789 to 1987. The United States is 1.8 trillion over the deficit as of the end of September; this means that the U.S. is now going to need to find lenders to buy up to 3 times that amount. There are no investors out there anymore China has a $2 trillion dollar reserve and Japan has a $1.4 trillion dollar reserve and combined it is not enough for the U.S. The U.S. is being forced to buy up its own debt which is insuring that the next step will be hyper inflation .

2. U.S. DOLLAR LOOSING DOMINANCE AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY: Rumors have been swirling around for some time now that several countries are planning to off-load their dollar reserves and begin settling international transactions in another currency. Secret meetings have been taking place with China, Russia, Japan, France, Brazil and some of the most powerful Gulf States to plan an end to their U.S. dollar dealings for oil. Meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme which if they have their way will mean oil will no longer be priced in U.S. dollars. Talks have included replacing the U.S. dollar with a basket of currency including gold . According to Chinese banking sources the transitional currency in the move away from the greenback with oil will be gold.

3. CHINA: It is common knowledge that China is not very happy with the greenback and the U.S. economy. They have been very vocal this year saying at the recent G20 summit that they want to be the new world reserve currency and want to create a gold linked currency. Along with these statements they have announced that they have been secretly buying gold since 2002 increasing their reserves over 600 metric tons. In addition they are now the world’s largest producer of gold and have plans to increase their already plentiful reserves. The IMF has been selling off gold recently in an attempt to create relief for the failing U.S. dollar. The IMF is in the process of selling 403 metric tons of gold and this time around China wants to purchase the entire amount in one single swoop. China along with India are now pressuring the IMF to sell their entire reserve of gold offering to purchase the entire amount. If China wasn’t driving the price of gold up enough they are now encouraging their 1.6 billion population, to purchase gold and silver. In an attempt to encourage personal ownership of gold and silver in China they are running daily commercials on television all across the nation.

As more banks continue to fail along with rising unemployment numbers in the United States it is safe to say the money supply will continue to expand. “The banking crisis keeps compounding and with Bank of America losing $2.2 billion from July through September things are only going to get worse” stated Ronald Fricke president of Regal Assets last Friday. If we do not get a handle on the excessive expansion of the money supply we could see unprecedented inflation rendering the dollar useless.

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Oct
12

Secret Meetings To Ditch The Dollar

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cartoon no us dollar Secret Meetings To Ditch The Dollar

By Peter Costa

It is time to re-examine the strength of the US dollar and its dominance as the world reserve currency. Since September 2008 the printing press at the Federal Reserve has been running 24/7 printing and churning out as much money as it possibly can in hopes that the economy will recover. The repercussions for this incessant expansion of the money supply are now starting to set in with the global economy.

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During the last 12 months American federal debt has risen by 24.47% and now stands at 83.52% of GDP. FDIC will be running at a deficit for the first time since the S & L crisis in 1991. 120 bank failures (and counting) over the last two years have stripped the FDIC insurance fund of over $52 billion. If the banking crisis isn’t alarming enough the unemployment rate in the United States is now sitting at over 10% with states like Michigan and California exceeding 17%.

With the dollar weakening how does the global economy feel about the future? China has been extremely vocal lately about the green back and has been as bold to say at the recent G20 summit that they want to be the new world reserve currency. They have also announced that they have been secretly buying gold since 2002 and are moving toward a gold linked currency.

In lieu of the failing dollar rumors have been surfacing that China, Russia, Japan, Brazil and several of the most powerful Gulf States have recently been plotting to end the decades-old practice of buying and selling oil in green backs. If the talks continue and more countries join this coalition they could have their way as soon as 2018. As an American I find this extremely alarming and question the stability of our dollar. When countries are secretly meeting up to ditch the US dollar this really speaks to the value of our green back. What is even more alarming is the fact that inflation has not fully surfaced in the United States and already countries are making plans to replace the dollar. One can not help but think that this is an attempt to ditch the dollar before inflation renders it useless. Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which if they have their way will mean that oil will no longer be priced in US dollars and essays have been written on that. The talks have included replacing the green back with a basket of currencies including the yuan, euro and gold. The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may be gold.

“China, Russia and many Middle East countries already have large reserves of US dollars. They want to stop them from expanding any further and are already looking to diversify in other currencies” stated Ronald Fricke president of Regal Assets last week in response to the weakening dollar. He continued to say “Indirectly gold is starting to become the new world reserve currency because globally nobody has confidence in any currency including the dollar”.

Are these sudden secret meetings a response to the already weak dollar or are they a hedge for the coming inflation? If these countries get their way and the US dollar is no longer used in the practice of buying and selling oil this could start the collapse of the green back. Truly only time will tell where things are heading but the more countries that shy away from the US dollar the closer we are moving toward a collapse in the green back. I do not advise anybody to sit around and wait for things to unfold it is time to take the appropriate steps and start protecting yourself from the inevitable before it is to late. Physical possession of gold and silver is a proven hedge against economic uncertainty and is an option I have been taking for sometime now and I urge you all to start pursuing. With gold continuing to set record highs, in less than a couple of years it may become one the scarcest metals to get a hold of as an individual investor.

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